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These two methods are likely biased toward underestimating the CMFs for lower values, and thereby exaggerating crash reductions, because regression to the mean is likely at play and is not accounted for in these methods.
They found that naked short sellers took smaller positions in firms with strong accounting fundamentals, but they took larger positions in companies with high levels of capital expenditures and sales growth, recognizing that those firms will have lower abnormal returns in the future just from regression to the mean.
And regression to the mean - the tendency for unusual occurrences to be followed by less unusual ones - suggests that a fair price about a low make-up today could be shorter than 1.
Regression to the mean suggests that extreme observations (in either direction) will eventually move toward the mean (Galton 1886), particularly if the observations are extreme due to measurement error (Cook and Campbell 1979).
Regression to the mean refers to the idea that schools above or below the mean--likely move toward file mean simply because that is the only direction those schools can go.
Their topics include mathematical coupling and regression to the mean in the relation between change and initial value, collinearity and multicollinearity, and finding growth trajectories in lifecourse research.
Regression to the mean occurs when the scores on those bottom-ranked competencies increase from Time 1 to Time 2 because of a non-intervention related factor, namely, the unreliability of the assessment.
The presence of within-subject variability raises the issue of regression to the mean (RTM) (31) and the probable value for an individual.